> SpaceX is basically Musk's most ambitious attempt at another business model that combines a Cult of Personality with Greater Fool Theory.

Right now free cash flow is negative $9.1B on $20.7B of capex. The company carries roughly $17B in combined space-and-AI cash burn and up to $119B in planned Terafab capex, and Musk himself warned of "genuine risk of bankruptcy" if Starship can't reach a launch every two weeks. That capital dependence is real and self-described.

To merely be fairly valued at $1.75T in ten years — i.e., the IPO buyer earns zero excess return — revenue has to compound at about 32% per year for a decade, taking SpaceX from $18.7B to roughly $290B.

To actually earn the buyer a pedestrian 10%/year over that decade, you need about 45% per year for ten straight years, ending near $750B in revenue. Swap to an earnings basis (25x earnings at an 18% net margin) and the required CAGR runs 35–49%. None of those are typos — that's the order of magnitude embedded in the price.

For reference, no company has sustained ~40%+ revenue CAGR from a ~$19B base for a full decade.