> Why polling is under-representing white Republicans this election

Because they can't be bothered to finish filling out the online survey.

Great question. Our model is built on a lot of polling — including our own — and it really bothers me how absurdly different the dropoff white respondents are in our polling. Whites who completed our polls swing 10% to the left, and whites who don't....barely swing at all.

I'm guessing this is not unique to our polling. If the model whiffs badly, it'll probably whiff on whites, and it would mean that far more low-propensity Rs showed up to vote.

And it means that the ones who didn't respond to polls were attitudinally very different and shifting far less than the ones who did respond, but were underrepresented in polling, meaning that we way over-project the swing.

https://x.com/lxeagle17/status/2103631774316380644