> What will happen to the economy if Trump enacts his "plan"?

#1 2024-10-26 17:40:41

I put "plan" in quotes because it is his delusion ravings. But be that as it may....

https://www.piie.com/research/piie-char … us-economy

To show what would happen if Trump implemented these policies together, we examined two scenarios. In the "low" combination scenario, Trump imposes a 60 percentage point increase in tariffs on US imports from China and a 10 percentage point increase in tariffs on all other imports; foreign countries do not retaliate by hiking tariffs on their imports from the United States, 1.3 million workers are deported, and the president gains more influence over the Fed. In the "high" combination scenario, the same tariff increases are enacted, other countries retaliate, 8.3 million workers are deported, and the Fed's independence is also eroded. We compared the results with a baseline US economic forecast of what would happen without those policies.

In the two scenarios, US real GDP will be between 2.8 and 9.7 percent lower than baseline by the end of Trump's four-year term in 2028. In terms of 2018 dollars, GDP is $750 billion to $2.57 trillion below baseline by 2028. GDP recovers a bit thereafter but remains lower through 2040, between 1.5 and 6.6 percent lower than baseline. The output loss hits manufacturing and agriculture in particular.

The combined policies cause the US inflation rate to climb to between 4.1 and 7.4 percentage points higher than otherwise by 2026. That means, on top of baseline inflation of 1.9 percent, inflation peaks then at between 6 and 9.3 percent. By 2028, US consumer prices generally are between 20 and 28 percent higher. The inflation rate settles at 2 percentage points above baseline, or almost 4 percent, from 2034 through 2040.

#2 2024-10-26 17:42:14

Will he give us 40 year high inflation like Biden did?

#3 2024-10-26 17:50:34

Kamala spent over 5oo million dollars in the past 3 weeks.   They are going to crash the economy and hand a mess over to Trump.   

But he will fix it.

#4 2024-10-26 17:56:06

 wrote:Will he give us 40 year high inflation like Biden did?
Inflation is 2.44%.

Trump gave us empty shelves and 11% unemployment the first time.

#5 2024-10-26 17:57:08

Phillip_McCavity wrote:Inflation is 2.44%.

Trump gave us empty shelves and 11% unemployment the first time.
So Biden didn't give us the highest inflation in 40 years?

Man, you're dumb as hell.

#6 2024-10-26 18:07:26

 wrote:So Biden didn't give us the highest inflation in 40 years?
No, he did not.


Trump, however, gave us a horrible mess that Biden had to clean up. When Biden took office, there were empty store shelves and massive unemployment. Today the economy is good -- low unemployment, stock market is soaring, and inflation at a mere 2.2%.

#7 2024-10-26 18:08:46

Phillip_McCavity wrote:No, he did not.
Is that the word on Earth 2?

Dumbfuq.

#8 2024-10-26 18:20:42

Phillip_McCavity wrote:I put "plan" in quotes because it is his delusion ravings. But be that as it may...
I can listen to Trump's delusional ravings or I can listen to your delusional ravings.  Such a tough choice...
\

#9 2024-10-26 18:22:55

Phillip_McCavity wrote:Inflation is 2.44%.
Trump gave us empty shelves and 11% unemployment the first time.
2.44 percent, compounded, starts to add up.
I'll remind you the economy was humming prior to The Coof.

#10 2024-10-26 18:26:09

Phil is severely mentally ill.  Dunning Kruger, cognitive dissonance and a lack of the ability to admit he is wrong.

Sad.

#11 2024-10-26 18:47:41

All the illegals will get their filthy asses kicked to the border and sent home!

Inflation will be greatly reduced as Bidennomics is PURE FUQING SHYT!

https://www.investopedia.com/us-inflati … nt-8546447

Donald Trump (2017–2021)
Average YOY Inflation Rate: 1.9%

The average year-over-year inflation rate under President Donald Trump was 1.9%. Inflation remained low during Trump’s presidency.

When the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020, bringing a brief but severe recession along with it, the Trump administration declared a state of emergency and passed stimulus measures such as the $2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act in an attempt to provide relief to individuals and businesses.

The economic policies followed by the Trump administration are now known as Trumponomics.

Joe Biden (2021–)
Average YOY Inflation Rate: 5.2%*

The average year-over-year inflation rate under President Joe Biden so far is 5.2%. Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act in 2021, a $1.9 trillion stimulus package to help the country recover from COVID-19. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused gas prices to soar, inflation rose to record levels not seen since the 1980s.

Inflation peaked at 9.1% year-over-year in June 2022, the highest increase in 40 years.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Consumer Prices Up 9.1% Over the Year Ended June 2022, Largest Increase in 40 Years.”

The Fed responded by raising interest rates 11 times since March 2022 in an attempt to cool the stubborn inflation. While inflation did come down from its 2022 peak in 2023, it still remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

In September 2024, the Fed is expected to make its first rate cut in four years. Biden's economic policies are now referred to as Bidenomics.

*The average year-over-year inflation rate for the Biden administration was calculated for the years 2021 to August 2024, since Biden’s term is still ongoing

#12 2024-10-26 18:59:51

Rainman wrote:Phil is severely mentally ill.  Dunning Kruger, cognitive dissonance and a lack of the ability to admit he is wrong.

Sad.
pfhildo is cancer

As if we needed more evidence.  This thread delivers it.

#13 2024-10-26 19:12:35

Diarrhetrius Brown wrote:All the illegals will get their filthy asses kicked to the border and sent home!

Inflation will be greatly reduced as Bidennomics is PURE FUQING SHYT!

https://www.investopedia.com/us-inflati … nt-8546447

Donald Trump (2017–2021)
Average YOY Inflation Rate: 1.9%

The average year-over-year inflation rate under President Donald Trump was 1.9%. Inflation remained low during Trump’s presidency.

When the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020, bringing a brief but severe recession along with it, the Trump administration declared a state of emergency and passed stimulus measures such as the $2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act in an attempt to provide relief to individuals and businesses.

The economic policies followed by the Trump administration are now known as Trumponomics.

Joe Biden (2021–)
Average YOY Inflation Rate: 5.2%*

The average year-over-year inflation rate under President Joe Biden so far is 5.2%. Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act in 2021, a $1.9 trillion stimulus package to help the country recover from COVID-19. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused gas prices to soar, inflation rose to record levels not seen since the 1980s.

Inflation peaked at 9.1% year-over-year in June 2022, the highest increase in 40 years.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Consumer Prices Up 9.1% Over the Year Ended June 2022, Largest Increase in 40 Years.”

The Fed responded by raising interest rates 11 times since March 2022 in an attempt to cool the stubborn inflation. While inflation did come down from its 2022 peak in 2023, it still remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

In September 2024, the Fed is expected to make its first rate cut in four years. Biden's economic policies are now referred to as Bidenomics.

*The average year-over-year inflation rate for the Biden administration was calculated for the years 2021 to August 2024, since Biden’s term is still ongoing
whoops

#14 2024-10-26 19:29:04

Ron_Santo_Redux wrote:whoops

Phildough will label Investpedia as unreliable.

#15 2024-10-26 19:30:06

No more anchor babies

#16 2024-10-26 20:26:36

why do your posts get so many downvotes?

#17 2024-10-26 21:11:13

Trump is publishing his plan on piie.com?    Turn off that pink leftist gas in San Francisco!

#18 2024-10-26 21:16:06

 wrote:2.44 percent, compounded, starts to add up.
I'll remind you the economy was humming prior to The Coof.
I think the economy in 2019 was okay, but under Joe Biden, the stock market did a lot better and unemployment is very low. Inflation is about the same as it was in 2019, it crept up all during Trump's time, probably because of tariffs and high spending.

Of course, you can't take the exact time someone takes office as the "beginning" of their time, for at least a year Trump profited from the Obama economy.

#19 2024-10-26 21:17:10

Meanwhile, if Trump enacts his plan, GDP will be a lot lower and the stock market will languish.

#20 2024-10-26 21:17:37

Phillip_McCavity wrote:I think the economy in 2019 was okay, but under Joe Biden, the stock market did a lot better and unemployment is very low. Inflation is about the same as it was in 2019, it crept up all during Trump's time, probably because of tariffs and high spending.

Of course, you can't take the exact time someone takes office as the "beginning" of their time, for at least a year Trump profited from the Obama economy.
Deranged. Psychotic. Fiction.

#21 2024-10-26 22:10:51

Phillip_McCavity wrote:I think the economy in 2019 was okay, but under Joe Biden, the stock market did a lot better and unemployment is very low. Inflation is about the same as it was in 2019, it crept up all during Trump's time, probably because of tariffs and high spending.

Of course, you can't take the exact time someone takes office as the "beginning" of their time, for at least a year Trump profited from the Obama economy.
The defnition of inflation is too many dollars, chasing too few goods.

Who was the decidng vote to pump 2 trillion dollars into the US economy?  Hint:  It wasn't Trump.

#22 2024-10-26 22:17:48

 wrote:The defnition of inflation is too many dollars, chasing too few goods.

Who was the decidng vote to pump 2 trillion dollars into the US economy?  Hint:  It wasn't Trump.
So then its okay if Trump wrecks the economy?

#23 2024-10-26 22:52:40

Phil are you going to try and kill him again?

#24 2024-10-26 23:09:35

It will take America decades to reverse the damage.

BUT on the bright side I think it will eventually lead to radical changes in regards to the electoral college and the SCOTUS.  But it's also possible the government itself does not survive it (Trump 2nd Presidency + the subsequent backlash) at all and the Constitiution is completely thrown away for something new.  Arguably that would not necessarily be a bad thing.  IMO right now it focuses too much on protecting the wealthy and property and not enough protecting the basic rights and well being of the people in general.  So what I am sayign here in other words is that Trump's idiocy and situation might just be enough to create radical changes int he ensuing backlash (think about what Hitler's rise ultimately led to).

edit: Sorry Phil.  I missed that you were focusing on the ECONOMY with this.  I guess I'll leave it up anyway?

#25 2024-10-26 23:15:28

anon user #3 wrote:It will take America decades to reverse the damage.

BUT on the bright side I think it will eventually lead to radical changes in regards to the electoral college and the SCOTUS.  But it's also possible the government itself does not survive it (Trump 2nd Presidency + the subsequent backlash) at all and the Constitiution is completely thrown away for something new.  Arguably that would not necessarily be a bad thing.  IMO right now it focuses too much on protecting the wealthy and property and not enough protecting the basic rights and well being of the people in general.  So what I am sayign here in other words is that Trump's idiocy and situation might just be enough to create radical changes int he ensuing backlash (think about what Hitler's rise ultimately led to).

edit: Sorry Phil.  I missed that you were focusing on the ECONOMY with this.  I guess I'll leave it up anyway?
It will take time to reverse the damage the Democrats have caused.   You're right on that one.

> What will happen to the economy if Trump enacts his "plan"?

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