> I'm buying 1,000 shares of Uber today - I'll let you know how it turns out.

any particular reason?

wrote:

It's seriously undervalued for no good reason - all the fear surrounding "cybertaxis" is way overblown.  My personal price target is $100.  I already had several thousand shares before today's purchase, and I think today is the last chance to buy it at a very steep discount, as tomorrow's earnings call is going to send it to $80 and an upward trajectory for the rest of the year.

Holy shyt, when did they become profitable?

That's probably the kiss of death, stock will tank.

ELN.gif

Edit: Looks like GOOG/Waymo shyt the bed, so if UBER delivers tomorrow, expect a run to $100.

wrote:

Well?

They missed!  But they aren't down much - less than 10%.  I'll keep buying, particularly if it gets below 65 (which it isn't in premarket, but might during regular hours). 

If it closes above 66 today, my thesis holds.

wrote:

the fear around cybertaxies is not overblown.  I had free access to Waymo for 2 years.   From week to week, the capabilities got better and better.   I much prefer it over a real driver now.

The only thing holding them back is scaling up the size of their fleet.   They made a bad choice with those Jaguar EVs, but that's being rectified.   Also the Zoox pods are being deployed.

Uber will live on in markets too small to support Waymo, but they're just going to keep shrinking.

Waymo is an incredible product, but it is a long way from being deployed ubiquitously and at a profit.  Neither of those things are close to happening.  Further, what makes you think Uber won't participate in AV?  Of course it will - when AV breaks, it will break market wide, so no one company - Waymo, or anyone else - will have a monopoly on the tech.

Uber is safe from AV for many years, and will continue to be very profitable through those years.  And when AV truly arrives, Uber will be a player in it.

The value of Uber is its entrenched, mature, global membership and stack - no one has the customers it has globally, and no one has developed its payment/hailing stack.  The application of that membership and stack to AV will make it a player once that space matures.

wrote:

Waymo is an incredible product, but it is a long way from being deployed ubiquitously and at a profit.  Neither of those things are close to happening.  Further, what makes you think Uber won't participate in AV?  Of course it will - when AV breaks, it will break market wide, so no one company - Waymo, or anyone else - will have a monopoly on the tech.

Uber is safe from AV for many years, and will continue to be very profitable through those years.  And when AV truly arrives, Uber will be a player in it.

The value of Uber is its entrenched membership and stack - no one has the customers it has globally, and no one has developed its payment/hailing stack.  The application of that membership and stack to AV will make it a player once that space matures.

Uber attempted an AV partnership with meta and failed.

Once women get a taste of Waymo, private smooth motion sickness-free rides without some poorly driving smelly egyptian eye-fuqing them, Uber is toast.

wrote:

Uber attempted an AV partnership with meta and failed.

Once women get a taste of Waymo, private smooth motion sickness-free rides without some poorly driving smelly egyptian eye-fuqing them, Uber is toast.

And when will that woman get that chance everywhere?  And when will that ride not be at a lose to Waymo? 

Many, many years away.  There's a reason Waymo only operates in the south west - the tech can't handle weather. 

To think the most powerful player in mobility won't have a position in AV when it makes sense is simply naive.  Until then, Uber will continue to make money.

Looking at the premarket, Uber is now down only marginally - it seems the market agrees with me.

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stock prices are not only about conditions now, but conditions in the future

Precisely - which is why the fact that it is only down 5% from yesterday's close (and not even below its 200 day) means the market agrees with me.  Other tech companies that missed recently have been punished more severely (GOOG, MSFT, etc. - all down more 10% after disappointing).

wrote:

Precisely - which is why the fact that it is only down 5% from yesterday's close (and not even below its 200 day) means the market agrees with me.  Other tech companies that missed recently have been punished more severely (GOOG, MSFT, etc. - all down more 10% after disappointing).

of course other things could happen to goog/alphabet - like Trump penalizing them for perceived slights over the years

wrote:

Hovering around $65.

This is basically the new resistance point.  The call was great, they're going to be buying back at this number, the quarter had some idiosyncrasies (fx, LA fires, etc.), Dara is a superstar CEO - this is a buying opportunity. 

I'm adding to my position and still think $90-100 is where this is headed in 12 months - outside of the meme stocks, where are you going to get a 100% return?

., wrote:

so you're now guaranteeing a 100% return?

Did I write "guarantee?"  $90-100 is my 12mo price target.

Are you poor?  Is that why you're so jeleous?  Because you can't participate in the equity markets that have delivered back-to-back 20%+ years?